A risk-managed portfolio for your retirement account.
Limnal reads the economy and the markets every day and turns that read into a clear list of ETFs to hold in your own account. When conditions weaken, it shifts toward defense.
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A standard retirement plan holds a fixed mix and accepts whatever the market does to it. Limnal manages that risk actively and shifts toward defense as conditions weaken. Over a full cycle the aim is a higher return for each unit of risk, with shallower losses along the way.
Limnal frames your downside as a statistical estimate: the size of loss you should be prepared for under current conditions, in the spirit of Value at Risk. Sizing your exposure to a number you have measured makes retirement planning a more statistical exercise.
$10,000, simulated day by day since January 2016
What a $10,000 starting balance would have done across the Limnal Growth tiers, traced against three things most people already hold: the S&P 500, a classic 60/40 stocks-and-bonds mix, and a 2050 target-date retirement fund.
See the worst-drop, month-by-month, and every-window views on /performance →
Pull data
Limnal pulls market prices, Treasury yields, inflation expectations, credit spreads, and federal cash-flow data, then reads their trend, momentum, and volatility for a full picture of the market environment.
Read the market
Four independent models weigh the economy and the markets from different angles, each with its own method.
Allocate
Their consensus becomes a concrete portfolio of up to 17 ETFs, with every weight shown.
Headline risk score
as of 2026-05-18Synthesized from the macro and treasury-flow models at this rebalance. The full model on Overview combines four models into one score from 1.0 to 3.0.
Limnal runs on fixed, published rules. Every input feeds the same calculation, so the same inputs always produce the same portfolio, and you can audit every step.
Macro Regime
Growth · Inflation · Liquidity · CreditScores the backdrop from four market signals: volatility-adjusted trend in equities (the S&P 500) and in inflation (oil and 10-year breakeven inflation expectations), a liquidity gate that turns defensive when the dollar strengthens and the yield curve flattens, and a high-yield credit-spread stress flag. Together they read whether conditions favor risk or defense.
DTS Liquidity
US Treasury fiscal flowsTracks the cash the federal government actually pays out each day (Social Security, Medicare, federal salaries, tax refunds) and how it is growing year over year. Rising outflows push liquidity into the economy and tend to lead risk assets by days to weeks.
Momentum
8 macro categoriesRanks about 66 ETFs across eight asset classes (US and international equities, Treasuries by maturity, credit, commodities, and alternatives) by volatility-adjusted trend, so a steady move scores higher than a sharp but noisy one of the same size.
Expected Returns
Forward real returnsEstimates the forward real return for US, developed, and emerging equities from valuations (Shiller CAPE and Research Affiliates CAPE) measured against the 10-year TIPS yield. Cheaper markets imply higher expected returns, and this sets the baseline equity envelope the other models tilt around.
Adjusting a portfolio often in a taxable account triggers short-term taxes that reduce returns. Where you run Limnal matters.
Best in a retirement account: a Roth IRA, traditional IRA, or 401(k) rollover. Both also work in a taxable account, where each rebalance can realize gains.
Information, not tax advice. The right setup depends on your tax bracket, how long you have held positions, and prior capital losses, among other things. If you are unsure, talk to a CPA before automating anything in a taxable account.
You keep your money at your own brokerage and place the trades yourself. The setup guide walks through choosing an account and a tier, turning the allocation into dollar amounts, and keeping up with rebalances.
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This is information, not investment advice. Past backtest performance does not guarantee future results. Frictionless simulations don't reflect transaction costs, tax effects, or individual circumstances. Limnal Research provides analytics; investment decisions are yours.